Oscar Watch 2024
- Misa Mascovich
- Mar 9, 2024
- 8 min read
This is my Superbowl.
Read on for my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards, with hot takes in categories like original song, visual effects, and live action short. Then tune in tonight at 6:00 pm CT to find out the winners.
LET’S FIGHT ABOUT IT.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
BRADLEY COOPER, Maestro
COLMAN DOMINGO, Rustin
PAUL GIAMATTI, The Holdovers
CILLIAN MURPHY, Oppenheimer
JEFFREY WRIGHT, American Fiction
What I think will win: Cillian Murphy
He’s been sweeping across the award circuit and even though Bradley Cooper is always doing the most, you can’t deny that Murphy jawline, baby blue gaze, and nuanced performance.
What I want to win: Cillian Murphy
Oppenheimer entirely hinges on his performance and believability; he 100% delivers.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE NOMINEES
STERLING K. BROWN, American Fiction
ROBERT DE NIRO, Killers of the Flower Moon
ROBERT DOWNEY JR., Oppenheimer
RYAN GOSLING, Barbie
MARK RUFFALO, Poor Things
What I think will win: Robert Downey Jr.
What I want to win: Mark Ruffalo
A huge departure from his last decade in the Marvelverse, Mark Ruffalo takes a big risk in Poor Things. His character is smug, hilarious, childish, and horny - and I think we should celebrate that.
Honorable Mention: Sterling K. Brown
For Sterling K. Brown, this category is just too stacked this year. But his performance is electric and if he was on screen more, he could have been a contender.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE NOMINEES
ANNETTE BENING, Nyad
LILY GLADSTONE, Killers of the Flower Moon
SANDRA HÜLLER, Anatomy of a Fall
CAREY MULLIGAN, Maestro
EMMA STONE, Poor Things
What I think will win: Lily Gladstone
I think Gladstone will make a historic moment this Oscars as the first native woman nominated AND to win.
What I want to win: Emma Stone/Lily Gladstone
I loved Gladstone’s performance because everything is under the surface of the character while nothing is muted. I also would be happy if Emma Stone won because it’s such a fun and ranging portrayal of growth. For Stone, I think it will be a definiing role of her career.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE NOMINEES
EMILY BLUNT, Oppenheimer
DANIELLE BROOKS, The Color Purple
AMERICA FERRERA, Barbie
JODIE FOSTER, Nyad
DA'VINE JOY RANDOLPH, The Holdovers
What I think will win: Da’vine Joy Randolph
What I want to win: Da’vine Joy Randolph
I haven’t even seen The Holdovers, but saw one clip of Randolph and couldn’t look away.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM NOMINEES
THE BOY AND THE HERON, Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
ELEMENTAL, Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
NIMONA, Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
ROBOT DREAMS, Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
What I think will win: The Boy and the Heron
What I want to win: I have not seen these - so I’m going with Miyazaki.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
EL CONDE, Edward Lachman
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Rodrigo Prieto
MAESTRO, Matthew Libatique
OPPENHEIMER, Hoyte van Hoytema
POOR THINGS, Robbie Ryan
What I think will win: Oppenheimer
I think Oppenheimer will be the film to beat in most technical categories.
What I want to win: Killers of the Flower Moon
This film is so beautiful it made me want to live in Oklahoma. What a feat of artistry.
COSTUME DESIGN
BARBIE, Jacqueline Durran
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Jacqueline West
NAPOLEON, Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
OPPENHEIMER, Ellen Mirojnick
POOR THINGS, Holly Waddington
What I think will win: Barbie
The costuming of Barbie has gotten a lot of attention on its press circuit. Does that translate to the voting body though?
What I want to win: Poor Things
The inventiveness of the costuming was so refreshing and inspiring in this film.
DIRECTING
ANATOMY OF A FALL, Justine Triet
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Martin Scorsese
OPPENHEIMER, Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS, Yorgos Lanthimos
THE ZONE OF INTEREST, Jonathan Glazer
What I think will win: Christopher Nolan
Everybody lovesssss Nolan. And he’s won all of the best director awards so far this season (Golden Globes, DGA, BAFTAs, Critic's Choice).
What I want to win: Poor Things
What can I say? I love the greek weirdo and want him to get all the attention.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE'S PRESIDENT, Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
THE ETERNAL MEMORY FOUR DAUGHTERS, Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
TO KILL A TIGER, Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
What I think will win: To Kill a Tiger
What I want to win: I have not seen these.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING, Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK, John Hoffman and Christine Turner
ISLAND IN BETWEEN, S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
THE LAST REPAIR SHOP, Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
NǍI NAI & WÀI PÓ, Sean Wang and Sam Davis
What I think will win: The Last Repair Shop
What I want to win: I have not seen these
FILM EDITING
ANATOMY OF A FALL, Laurent Sénéchal
THE HOLDOVERS, Kevin Tent
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Thelma Schoonmaker
OPPENHEIMER, Jennifer Lame
POOR THINGS, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
What I think will win: Oppenheimer
What I want to win: Oppenheimer
Ok I swear I’m not A Nolan film bro, but this movie is beautifully edited!
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
IO CAPITANO, Italy
PERFECT DAYS, Japan
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW, Spain
THE TEACHERS' LOUNGE, Germany
THE ZONE OF INTEREST, United Kingdom
What I think will win: The Teacher's Lounge
What I want to win:
I have not seen these, but I think The Zone of Interest could get love in the International Feature category rather than in the directing/best film categories.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
GOLDA, Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
MAESTRO, Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
OPPENHEIMER, Luisa Abel
POOR THINGS, Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW, Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
What I think will win: Poor Things
Ya know, my first instinct was Maestro, because The Academy loves a fake nose (see: The Hours). But after a strong BAFTA win, Poor Things might just have it!
What I want to win: Poor Things
I don’t know whether to cringe at Willem Dafoe’s makeup in this movie and I can’t look away.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
AMERICAN FICTION, Laura Karpman
INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY, John Williams
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Robbie Robertson
OPPENHEIMER, Ludwig Göransson
POOR THINGS, Jerskin Fendrix
What I think will win: Oppenheimer
Mostly because this was the only score I could remember
What I want to win: Oppenheimer
Also, isn’t the Indian Jones nomination kind of cheating? We’re not voting for the original score.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
THE FIRE INSIDE, from Flamin' Hot; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
I'M JUST KEN, from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
IT NEVER WENT AWAY, from American Symphony; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
WAHZHAZHE (A SONG FOR MY PEOPLE), from Killers of the Flower Moon; Music and Lyric by Scott George
WHAT WAS I MADE FOR?, from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
What I think will win: What was I Made For?
Do I want this to win? Absolutely not! Do I think it will? 100%!
What I want to win: I’m Just Ken
Hear me out - this is the superior Barbie song because:
It’s more complex lyrically and musically
It doesn’t have Billy Eilish whisper singing in it
BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN FICTION, Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
ANATOMY OF A FALL, Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
BARBIE, David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
THE HOLDOVERS, Mark Johnson, Producer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
MAESTRO, Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
OPPENHEIMER, Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
PAST LIVES, David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
POOR THINGS, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
THE ZONE OF INTEREST, James Wilson, Producer
What I think will win: Oppenheimer
Entirely deserved tbh
What I want to win: Poor Things
I love this movie!!!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
BARBIE, Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
NAPOLEON, Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
OPPENHEIMER, Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
POOR THINGS, Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
What I think will win: Poor Things
What I want to win: Barbie
The realization of the Barbie Dreamhouse/Barbie World is just so joyful.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
LETTER TO A PIG, Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
NINETY-FIVE SENSES, Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
OUR UNIFORM, Yegane Moghaddam
PACHYDERME, Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO, Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
What I think will win: Ninety-Five Senses
What I want to win: I have not seen these
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
THE AFTER, Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
INVINCIBLE, Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
KNIGHT OF FORTUNE, Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
RED, WHITE AND BLUE, Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR, Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
What I think will win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
What I want to win: Anything but that. Jk. Invincible was my favorite by far.
I think I’m a Wes Anderson hater? Hot take: this was my favorite Wes Anderson film since Fantastic Mr. Fox (I think adapting a Roald Dahl story has something to do with it).
SOUND
THE CREATOR, Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MAESTRO, Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE, Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
OPPENHEIMER, Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
THE ZONE OF INTEREST, Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
What I think will win: Oppenheimer
Everyone knows this film is about the atomic bomb, so it’s a tall order to provide the shock and awe of that first nuclear test. The sound in this movie is responsible for the success of that moment.
What I want to win: Oppenheimer
VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CREATOR, Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
GODZILLA MINUS ONE, Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3, Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE, Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
NAPOLEON, Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
What I think will win: Godzilla Minus One
Hot Take: this movie has better effects on a budget under $15MM than any Marvel movie in the past 10 years.
What I want to win: Mission Impossible: Dead Reakoning
While Mission Impossible movies always get attention about the practical effects (ie. Tom Cruise base jumping off of a motorcycle) , I think it’s the seamless transition between the real and artificial that makes the effects so impactful.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN FICTION, Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
BARBIE, Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
OPPENHEIMER, Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS, Screenplay by Tony McNamara
THE ZONE OF INTEREST, Written by Jonathan Glazer
What I think will win: American Fiction
What I want to win: American Fiction
I’m glad American Fiction is getting love as it’s just SUCH an enjoyable and satisfying film.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ANATOMY OF A FALL, Screenplay - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
THE HOLDOVERS, Written by David Hemingson
MAESTRO, Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
MAY DECEMBER, Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
PAST LIVES, Written by Celine Song
What I think will win: Anatomy of a Fall
This script and pacing was so tight in the film.
What I want to win: Past Lives or May December
I thought about Past Lives for WEEKS after watching it. And am continually mulling over May December.
Will my predictions be true? Will Opennheimer sweep? Will Ryan Gosling look embarassed as he sings on stage? Will there be a reference to the Will Smith slap?
Tune in with me tonight at 6:00 pm CT to find out!
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